Dynamics and bifurcations in a simple quasispecies model of tumorigenesis

Cancer is a complex disease and thus is complicated to model. However, simple models that describe the main processes involved in tumoral dynamics, e.g., competition and mutation, can give us clues about cancer behaviour, at least qualitatively, also allowing us to make predictions. Here we analyze a simplified quasispecies mathematical model given by differential equations describing the time behaviour of tumor cells populations with different levels of genomic instability. We find the equilibrium points, also characterizing their stability and bifurcations focusing on replication and mutation rates. We identify a transcritical bifurcation at increasing mutation rates of the tumor cells population. Such a bifurcation involves an scenario with dominance of healthy cells and impairment of tumor populations. Finally, we characterize the transient times for this scenario, showing that a slight increase beyond the critical mutation rate may be enough to have a fast response towards the desired state (i.e., low tumor populations) during directed mutagenic therapies

Nonlinear deterministic equations in biological evolution

We review models of biological evolution in which the population frequency changes deterministically with time. If the population is self-replicating, although the equations for simple prototypes can be linearised, nonlinear equations arise in many complex situations. For sexual populations, even in the simplest setting, the equations are necessarily nonlinear due to the mixing of the parental genetic material. The solutions of such nonlinear equations display interesting features such as multiple equilibria and phase transitions. We mainly discuss those models for which an analytical understanding of such nonlinear equations is available.Comment: Invited review for J. Nonlin. Math. Phy

Variation in RNA Virus Mutation Rates across Host Cells

It is well established that RNA viruses exhibit higher rates of spontaneous mutation than DNA viruses and microorganisms. However, their mutation rates vary amply, from 10−6 to 10−4 substitutions per nucleotide per round of copying (s/n/r) and the causes of this variability remain poorly understood. In addition to differences in intrinsic fidelity or error correction capability, viral mutation rates may be dependent on host factors. Here, we assessed the effect of the cellular environment on the rate of spontaneous mutation of the vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV), which has a broad host range and cell tropism. Luria-Delbrück fluctuation tests and sequencing showed that VSV mutated similarly in baby hamster kidney, murine embryonic fibroblasts, colon cancer, and neuroblastoma cells (approx. 10−5 s/n/r). Cell immortalization through p53 inactivation and oxygen levels (1–21%) did not have a significant impact on viral replication fidelity. This shows that previously published mutation rates can be considered reliable despite being based on a narrow and artificial set of laboratory conditions. Interestingly, we also found that VSV mutated approximately four times more slowly in various insect cells compared with mammalian cells. This may contribute to explaining the relatively slow evolution of VSV and other arthropod-borne viruses in nature

Noise-induced bistability in the fate of cancer phenotypic quasispecies: a bit-strings approach

Tumor cell populations are highly heterogeneous. Such heterogeneity, both at genotypic and phenotypic levels, is a key feature during tumorigenesis. How to investigate the impact of this heterogeneity in the dynamics of tumors cells becomes an important issue. Here we explore a stochastic model describing the competition dynamics between a pool of heterogeneous cancer cells with distinct phenotypes and healthy cells. This model is used to explore the role of demographic fluctuations on the transitions involving tumor clearance. Our results show that for large population sizes, when demographic fluctuations are negligible, there exists a sharp transition responsible for tumor cells extinction at increasing tumor cells’ mutation rates. This result is consistent with a mean field model developed for the same system. The mean field model reveals only monostability scenarios, in which either the dominance of the tumor cells or the dominance of the healthy cells is found. Interestingly, the stochastic model shows that for small population sizes the monostability behavior disappears, involving the presence of noise-induced bistability. The impact of the initial populations of cells in the fate of the cell populations is investigated, as well as the transient times towards the healthy and the cancer states

Host-virus evolutionary dynamics with specialist and generalist infection strategies: bifurcations, bistability and chaos

In this work we have investigated the evolutionary dynamics of a generalist pathogen, e.g. a virus population, that evolves towards specialisation in an environment with multiple host types. We have particularly explored under which conditions generalist viral strains may rise in frequency and coexist with specialist strains or even dominate the population. By means of a nonlinear mathematical model and bifurcation analysis, we have determined the theoretical conditions for stability of nine identified equilibria and provided biological interpretation in terms of the infection rates for the viral specialist and generalist strains. By means of a stability diagram we identified stable fixed points and stable periodic orbits, as well as regions of bistability. For arbitrary biologically feasible initial population sizes, the probability of evolving towards stable solutions is obtained for each point of the analyzed parameter space. This probability map shows combinations of infection rates of the generalist and specialist strains that might lead to equal chances for each type becoming the dominant strategy. Furthermore, we have identified infection rates for which the model predicts the onset of chaotic dynamics. Several degenerate Bogdanov-Takens and zero-Hopf bifurcations are detected along with generalized Hopf and zero-Hopf bifurcations. This manuscript provides additional insights into the dynamical complexity of host-pathogen evolution towards different infection strategies

Theoretical conditions for the coexistence of viral strains with differences in phenotypic traits: a bifurcation analysis

We investigate the dynamics of a wild-type viral strain which generates mutant strains differing in phenotypic properties for infectivity, virulence and mutation rates. We study, by means of a mathematical model and bifurcation analysis, conditions under which the wild-type and mutant viruses, which compete for the same host cells, can coexist. The coexistence conditions are formulated in terms of the basic reproductive numbers of the strains, a maximum value of the mutation rate and the virulence of the pathogens. The analysis reveals that parameter space can be divided into five regions, each with distinct dynamics, that are organized around degenerate Bogdanov–Takens and zero-Hopf bifurcations, the latter of which gives rise to a curve of transcritical bifurcations of periodic orbits. These results provide new insights into the conditions by which viral populations may contain multiple coexisting strains in a stable manner

Tempo and Mode of Plant RNA Virus Escape from RNA Interference-Mediated Resistance ▿

A biotechnological application of artificial microRNAs (amiRs) is the generation of plants that are resistant to virus infection. This resistance has proven to be highly effective and sequence specific. However, before these transgenic plants can be deployed in the field, it is important to evaluate the likelihood of the emergence of resistance-breaking mutants. Two issues are of particular interest: (i) whether such mutants can arise in nontransgenic plants that may act as reservoirs and (ii) whether a suboptimal expression level of the transgene, resulting in subinhibitory concentrations of the amiR, would favor the emergence of escape mutants. To address the first issue, we experimentally evolved independent lineages of Turnip mosaic virus (TuMV) (family Potyviridae) in fully susceptible wild-type Arabidopsis thaliana plants and then simulated the spillover of the evolving virus to fully resistant A. thaliana transgenic plants. To address the second issue, the evolution phase took place with transgenic plants that expressed the amiR at subinhibitory concentrations. Our results show that TuMV populations replicating in susceptible hosts accumulated resistance-breaking alleles that resulted in the overcoming of the resistance of fully resistant plants. The rate at which resistance was broken was 7 times higher for TuMV populations that experienced subinhibitory concentrations of the antiviral amiR. A molecular characterization of escape alleles showed that they all contained at least one nucleotide substitution in the target sequence, generally a transition of the G-to-A and C-to-U types, with many instances of convergent molecular evolution. To better understand the viral population dynamics taking place within each host, as well as to evaluate relevant population genetic parameters, we performed in silico simulations of the experiments. Together, our results contribute to the rational management of amiR-based antiviral resistance in plants